"In speaking lonely assassin dragging his burden shore, already suggested the probability availing himself of boat Now to understand that Marie Rogt was precipitated from boat naturally the case The corpse trusted shallow waters shore The peculiar marks back and shoulders victim tell bottom ribs of boat body was found without weight is also corroborative idea If thrown shore weight attached only account for its absence by supposing the murderer neglected the precaution of supplying himself with it before pushing off act of consigning the corpse water, unquestionably have noticed his oversight; but then no remedy at hand Any risk preferred to return accursed shore Having rid himself ghastly charge, the murderer hastened city There, at some obscure wharf, leaped on land But the boat - would he have secured it ? He in too great haste for such things as securing boat Moreover, in fastening it wharf, felt securing evidence against himself His natural thought to cast , as far as possible, all that had held connection crime only have fled wharf, but have permitted the boat to remain Assuredly cast it adrift pursue our fancies - morning, the wretch is stricken with unutterable horror at finding boat picked up and detained at locality which daily habit of frequenting - at locality, perhaps, which his duty compels him to frequent The next night, without daring to ask rudder, he removes it Now where rudderless boat ? Let it be first purposes to discover first glimpse we obtain of it, the dawn success shall begin This boat shall guide us, with rapidity which will surprise even ourselves, to him who employed it midnight fatal Sabbath Corroboration will rise upon corroboration, murderer traced "

[For reasons which specify, but which to many readers will appear obvious, taken the liberty of here omitting, MSS placed hands, such portion as details the following up apparently slight clew obtained by Dupin it advisable only to state, in brief, result desired was brought ; and Prefect fulfilled punctually, although with reluctance, the terms compact Chevalier Mr Poe's article concludes following words - Eds {*23}]

understood that I speak of coincidences and no more What said above topic must suffice In my own heart there dwells no faith in prter-nature That Nature and its God are two, no man who thinks, will deny latter, creating the former, can, at will, control or modify it, is also unquestionable "at will;" question is of will, and not, insanity of logic has assumed, of power Deity cannot modify his laws, but that we insult him in imagining possible necessity for modification In their origin these laws were fashioned to embrace all contingencies which could lie With God all is Now

I repeat, then, that I speak things only as of coincidences And farther: in what I relate seen that fate unhappy Mary Cecilia Rogers, fate is known, fate of one Marie Rogt certain epoch in her history, there has existed parallel contemplation of whose wonderful exactitude the reason becomes embarrassed all seen But let it not for moment be supposed that, in proceeding sad narrative of Marie epoch just mentioned, and in tracing to its dnouement the mystery which enshrouded her, my covert design to hint at an extension parallel, or even to the measures adopted in Paris discovery assassin of grisette, or measures founded in any similar ratiocination, would produce any similar result

For, in respect latter branch supposition, it considered most trifling variation facts two cases might give rise most important miscalculations, by diverting thoroughly the two courses of events; as, in arithmetic, an error which, in its own individuality, inappreciable, produces, , by dint of multiplication at all points process, result enormously at variance with truth And, in regard former branch, not fail to hold in view very Calculus of Probabilities referred, forbids all idea extension parallel: - forbids it with positiveness strong and decided just in proportion parallel has already been long-drawn and exact one anomalous propositions which, seemingly appealing to thought altogether apart mathematical, is yet one which only the mathematician can fully entertain Nothing, for example, is more difficult than the merely general reader fact of sixes having been thrown twice in succession by player at dice, is sufficient cause for betting the largest odds that sixes thrown third attempt suggestion effect is usually rejected intellect at once It appear two throws been completed, and which lie now absolutely , influence throw which exists only The chance for throwing sixes precisely as at any ordinary time - , subject only influence various other throws made dice And reflection which appears so exceedingly obvious that attempts to controvert it are received more frequently with derisive smile than with anything like respectful attention The error here involved - gross error redolent of mischief - pretend to expose limits assigned me at present; and philosophical it needs no exposure It sufficient here forms one of an infinite series of mistakes which arise path or Reason through her propensity for seeking truth in detail

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FOOTNOTES--Marie Rogt

{*1} original publication of "Marie Roget," the foot-notes now appended were considered unnecessary; but the lapse of several years tragedy the tale is based, renders it expedient them, and also few words in explanation general design young girl, Mary Cecilia Rogers, was murdered vicinity of New York; and, although her death occasioned an intense and long-enduring excitement, the mystery attending it had remained unsolved period present paper was written and published (November, 1842) Herein, under pretence of relating the fate of Parisian grisette, the author has followed in minute detail, the essential, while merely paralleling the inessential facts real murder of Mary Rogers Thus all argument founded fiction is applicable truth: investigation truth object The "Mystery of Marie Roget" was composed at distance scene atrocity, and with no other means of investigation newspapers afforded Thus much escaped the writer he availed himself had he been spot, and visited the localities It may not be improper to record, nevertheless, confessions of two persons, ( the Madame Deluc narrative) made, at different periods, long subsequent publication, confirmed, in full, the general conclusion, but absolutely all the chief hypothetical details that conclusion was attained

{*2} The nom de plume of Von Hardenburg

{*3} Nassau Street

{*4} Anderson

{*5} The Hudson

{*6} Weehawken

{*7} Payne

{*8} Crommelin

{*9} The New York "Mercury "

(*10} The New York "Brother Jonathan," edited by H Hastings Weld, Esq

{*11} New York "Journal of Commerce "

{*12} Philadelphia "Saturday Evening Post," edited by C I Peterson, Esq

{*13} Adam

{*14} See "Murders Rue Morgue "

{*15} The New York "Commercial Advertiser," edited by Col Stone

{*16} "A theory based qualities of an object, will prevent its being unfolded according to its objects; and he who arranges topics in reference causes, will cease to value them according results Thus the jurisprudence of every nation will show that, when law becomes science and system, it ceases justice The errors into which blind devotion to principles of classification has led the common law, seen by observing how often the legislature obliged forward to restore the equity its scheme had lost " - Landor

{*17} New York "Express"

{*18} NewYork "Herald "

{*19} New York "Courier and Inquirer "

{*20} Mennais was parties originally suspected and arrested, but discharged through total lack of evidence

{*21} New York "Courier and Inquirer "

{*22} New York "Evening Post "

{*23} Magazine article was originally published